I. Core Definition and Significance of Non-Farm Data

Non-Farm Payrolls is a core economic indicator released monthly by the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics, full name "Change in Non-Farm Employment" (Non-Farm Payrolls, NFP), released on the first Friday of each month (8:30 PM EDT during daylight saving time, 9:30 PM EST during standard time).

Core Three Elements:

  • Non-Farm Employment Change: Reflects the number of new jobs added in the non-agricultural sector (most watched indicator)

  • Unemployment Rate: Proportion of the unemployed population to the total labor force

  • Average Hourly Earnings: Reflects wage growth and inflationary pressure

Data Significance:

  • Non-farm data covers about 80% of the U.S. employed population, directly reflecting the development status of manufacturing and services, serving as the economy's "barometer"

  • As the core basis for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments, it directly impacts interest rate hike and cut decisions

  • It triggers intense fluctuations in global financial markets, known as "Non-Farm Night", and is the "monthly big show" that investors must pay attention to

II. Generation Mechanism and Release Process of Non-Farm Data

1. Data Sources and Survey Methods

Dual Survey System:

  • Establishment Survey: Questionnaires are sent to approximately 121,000 businesses and government agencies to collect data on employment numbers, hours worked, and wages, covering 9 million workplaces, accounting for about 80% of non-farm employment

  • Household Survey: Conducted via phone calls and in-person visits to about 60,000 households to tally labor force participation rates and unemployment rates

2. Data Processing and Release Process

Timeline Key Events
Mid to late each month Complete data collection from businesses and households
Data processing period Perform seasonal adjustments (to eliminate influences from holidays, weather, etc.)
First Friday of each month Official release, simultaneously announcing previous values (last month's data) and expected values (market forecasts)

Important Note: The data has a revision mechanism, and subsequent months may revise prior data, with initial values potentially differing significantly from final values; continuous monitoring is required.

III. Detailed Explanation of Core Non-Farm Indicators

1. Non-Farm Employment Change (NFP): The Focus Within the Market Focus

  • Value Interpretation:

    • Above Expectations: Strong economy, the Fed may maintain high interest rates or delay rate cuts, bullish for USD, bearish for cryptocurrencies

    • Below Expectations: Weak economy, the Fed may cut rates, bearish for USD, bullish for cryptocurrencies

    • In Line with Expectations: Limited market reaction, focus on other indicators

  • Typical Case: August 2025 data showed only 22,000 jobs added, far below the expected 75,000, with unemployment rising to 4.3% (four-year high), leading to a sharp short-term drop in Bitcoin and nearly 70,000 liquidations across the network.

2. Unemployment Rate: The "Thermometer" Reflecting Labor Market Tightness

  • Calculation Formula: Unemployment Rate = Unemployed Population ÷ Total Labor Force × 100%

  • Key Threshold: Typically below 4% is considered "full employment", above 5% signals potential economic slowdown

  • Synergistic Interpretation with Non-Farm Employment: Employment up + Unemployment down = Strong economy; Employment down + Unemployment up = Weak economy

3. Average Hourly Earnings: The "Leading Indicator" of Inflation

  • Data Significance: Wage growth → Increased consumer spending power → Heightened inflationary pressure → Fed may maintain high interest rates

  • Market Reaction: Hourly earnings growth exceeding expectations usually triggers "rate hike expectations", putting pressure on cryptocurrency prices

IV. Mechanism of Non-Farm Data's Impact on the Crypto Market

Transmission Path: Non-Farm → Fed Policy → Liquidity → Cryptocurrency Prices

1. Liquidity Effect:

  • Strong Non-Farm → Fed maintains high interest rates → Rising borrowing costs → Tightening liquidity → Funds flow out of high-risk assets (cryptocurrencies) → Price decline

  • Weak Non-Farm → Fed rate cut expectations → Loose liquidity → Funds inflow to cryptocurrencies → Price riseToday's Headlines

2. Risk Appetite Shift:

  • Non-Farm exceeding expectations → Overheating economy concerns → Rising risk aversion → Funds shift to safe assets like USD and Treasuries → Cryptocurrencies sold off

  • Non-Farm below expectations → Recession concerns → Risk aversion also rises → But funds may shift to "digital gold" Bitcoin for hedging

3. Historical Correlation Data:

  • US Dollar Index and Bitcoin are negatively correlated: USD rises, Bitcoin typically falls (correlation coefficient approx. -0.8)

  • Fed policy expectations are the key link connecting Non-Farm data to the crypto market, with sensitivity increasing as institutional funds enter

V. Practical Guide to Interpreting Non-Farm Data

1. The "Golden Triangle" of Non-Farm Data Interpretation

Data Combination Market Interpretation Impact on Cryptocurrencies

Employment ↑, Hourly Earnings ↑, Unemployment ↓

 Strong economy, high inflation risk Bearish (Fed may maintain high interest rates)

Employment ↓, Hourly Earnings ↓, Unemployment ↑

 Economic recession, deflation risk Bullish (Fed may cut rates)

Employment ↑, Hourly Earnings ↓, Unemployment ↑

 Economic structural imbalance, poor quality Neutral to bearish, monitor follow-up policies

Employment ↓, Hourly Earnings ↑, Unemployment ↓

 Labor shortage, supply insufficiency Neutral to bullish, monitor inflation data

2. The "Three Relationships" Between Non-Farm Data and Expected Values

① Data > Expectations > Previous Value: Super strong, bearish for cryptocurrencies

  • Example: October 2022 Non-Farm added 261,000 jobs (exceeding expectations), reinforcing Fed's rate hike resolve, Bitcoin fell over 5% that day

② Expectations > Data > Previous Value: Moderate slowdown, short-term bearish, medium-term may turn bullish

  • Market may interpret as "soft landing" signal, monitor Fed policy statements

③ Previous Value > Expectations > Data: Significantly weak, bullish for cryptocurrencies

  • April 2024 Non-Farm added 175,000 jobs (far below expected 245,000), Bitcoin rebounded short-term above $64,000

VI. Non-Farm Data Trading Strategies (Practical Guide for Investors)

1. Pre-Release Preparation

  • Focus on Expected Values: Understand market consensus in advance (via Bloomberg, Reuters, etc.)

  • Technical Confirmation: Before Non-Farm, observe Bitcoin's key support/resistance levels to predict potential volatility direction

  • Position Management: Control leverage before Non-Farm, avoid full positions, reserve funds for contingencies

2. Operation Strategies During Release

① Data Exceeds Expectations:

  • If strong employment: Short Bitcoin / Ethereum or reduce holdings in high-risk altcoins

  • If weak employment: Long Bitcoin (digital gold attribute), cautiously participate in quality DeFi and NFT projects

② Data In Line with Expectations:

  • Limited market volatility, mainly observe, wait for trend clarity

  • Focus on other indicators (e.g., unemployment rate, hourly earnings) for additional clues

③ Data Significantly Deviates from Expectations:

  • Intense short-term volatility, avoid chasing trades immediately, wait for market digestion (about 15-30 minutes)

  • Focus on Fed officials' subsequent statements to confirm policy stance changes

3. Post-Release Strategy Adjustments

  • The 24 hours after Non-Farm is the market digestion period, volatility may persist, use leverage cautiously

  • Monitor fund flows: Platforms like CoinMarketCap can show net inflows/outflows on exchanges

  • Combine with technical analysis: Trends triggered by Non-Farm usually last 2-3 days, participate lightly along the trend direction

VII. Real-World Cases: How Non-Farm Data Affects the Crypto Market

Case One: Non-Farm Surprise, Cryptocurrencies Surge Across the Board (October 2025)

  • Data: U.S. September Non-Farm employment added only 22,000 (expected 75,000), unemployment rose to 4.3%

  • Market Reaction: US Dollar Index plummeted, Bitcoin broke through $117,000, over 100,000 liquidations network-wide

  • Core Logic: Deteriorating job market reinforced Fed rate cut expectations, funds surged into cryptocurrencies for hedging

Case Two: Strong Non-Farm, Cryptocurrencies Under Pressure and Decline (January 2025)

  • Data: Non-Farm employment added 300,000 (exceeding expectations), hourly earnings up 4.8% YoY (above expectations)

  • Market Reaction: US Dollar Index broke through 110, Bitcoin dropped 15%, 290,000 liquidations network-wide

  • Core Logic: Overheating economy concerns intensified, market expected Fed to maintain high interest rates, funds withdrew from risk assetsToday's Headlines

VIII. Summary: Investment Insights from Non-Farm Data

  1. Non-Farm data is an important external catalyst for the crypto market, especially during Fed policy-sensitive periods (rate hike/cut cycles) where the impact is more significant

  2. Core Path of Non-Farm's Impact on Cryptocurrencies: Non-Farm → Fed Policy Expectations → USD Liquidity → Risk Asset Prices

  3. Investment Strategy Suggestions:

    • Before Non-Farm: Light positions, focus on expectations, confirm with technicals

    • During Non-Farm: Operate based on deviation from expectations, avoid chasing highs or lows

    • After Non-Farm: Observe fund flows, combine with technicals, seize trend continuation opportunities